COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model

Samuel Ropert, Tomas Perez-Acle, Alejandro Bernardin

Producción científica: Capítulo del libro/informe/acta de congresoContribución a la conferenciarevisión exhaustiva

Resumen

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.

Idioma originalInglés
Título de la publicación alojadaProceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022
EditoresB. Feng, G. Pedrielli, Y. Peng, S. Shashaani, E. Song, C.G. Corlu, L.H. Lee, E.P. Chew, T. Roeder, P. Lendermann
EditorialInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Páginas2546-2557
Número de páginas12
ISBN (versión digital)9798350309713
DOI
EstadoPublicada - 2022
Evento2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022 - Guilin, China
Duración: 20222022

Serie de la publicación

NombreProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
Volumen2022-December
ISSN (versión impresa)0891-7736

Conferencia

Conferencia2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022
País/TerritorioChina
CiudadGuilin
Período11/12/2214/12/22

Nota bibliográfica

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 IEEE.

Áreas temáticas de ASJC Scopus

  • Software
  • Modelización y simulación
  • Informática aplicada

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