Using ecosystem services mapping for marine spatial planning in southern Chile under scenario assessment

This study presents an empirical example of how ES can be incorporated into MSP in developing countries, in particular in the Southern region of Los Lagos (Chile). This paper aims to: (a) assess the overlapping incompatibilities within each zoning area, (b) calculate the importance score of the three key ES selected, (c) assess the importance scores of the ES and develop plausible future scenarios for marine zoning. Here, we use InVEST marine models to spatially map the distribution of marine ES (ecotourism and recreation, wildlife endangered species, and habitat-forming species). Taking the current proposal of the MSP as a baseline scenario, two plausible hypothetical future scenarios were also developed based on policies and decision-making trends, and the results of the ES importance score values within each zoning area. The results of this paper indicate that the environmental conservation-aboriginal development scenario would be considered as the more appropriate future projection in terms of securing the three key ES analysed in the region. However, due to changes in the economic development paradigm for the Inner Sea of Chiloe, decision makers, the scientific community and industry representatives are facing a major challenge in allocating appropriate areas to secure ES which requires a holistic perspective.