Uncertainty and sensibility analysis in building simulation: A probabilistic approach to the real estate market of apartments in Santiago de Chile

Felipe Encinas Pino*, Francisco José Sanchez De La Flor, Carlos Aguirre Nunez, Servando Álvarez Dominguez

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

It is clear that the thermophysical properties of materials, occupancy patterns and internal gains represent some of the most important sources of uncertainty in the field of building simulation. Uncertainty and sensibility analysis deals with this situation, since it can generate a great range of forecast values based on the distribution of the input variables. At the same time, these techniques allow to determine as each variable contribute to the total variance of output results. However, most of the building energy simulation programs are deterministic, rather than probabilistic and consequently their results frequently are not expressed in terms of probabilities. On the contrary, the probabilistic approach requires a more complex process, since parameters quantification requires not only an assessment of the point estimate, but also an assessment of the uncertainty. This research aims to define the uncertainty of the predicted energy performance by means of the comparison between factorial design and Monte Carlo Analysis for a sample of 7776 cases that belong to the real estate market of apartments in Santiago de Chile. A total of 9 input parameters constitute the basis for these analyses using the standard EN ISO 13790 as calculation algorithm for estimating the annual heating demand.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPLEA 2011 - Architecture and Sustainable Development, Conference Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture
Pages23-28
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes
Event27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture: Architecture and Sustainable Development, PLEA 2011 - Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Duration: 20112011

Publication series

NamePLEA 2011 - Architecture and Sustainable Development, Conference Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture

Conference

Conference27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture: Architecture and Sustainable Development, PLEA 2011
Country/TerritoryBelgium
CityLouvain-la-Neuve
Period13/07/1115/07/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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