TY - GEN
T1 - Uncertainty and sensibility analysis in building simulation
T2 - 27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture: Architecture and Sustainable Development, PLEA 2011
AU - Pino, Felipe Encinas
AU - De La Flor, Francisco José Sanchez
AU - Nunez, Carlos Aguirre
AU - Dominguez, Servando Álvarez
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - It is clear that the thermophysical properties of materials, occupancy patterns and internal gains represent some of the most important sources of uncertainty in the field of building simulation. Uncertainty and sensibility analysis deals with this situation, since it can generate a great range of forecast values based on the distribution of the input variables. At the same time, these techniques allow to determine as each variable contribute to the total variance of output results. However, most of the building energy simulation programs are deterministic, rather than probabilistic and consequently their results frequently are not expressed in terms of probabilities. On the contrary, the probabilistic approach requires a more complex process, since parameters quantification requires not only an assessment of the point estimate, but also an assessment of the uncertainty. This research aims to define the uncertainty of the predicted energy performance by means of the comparison between factorial design and Monte Carlo Analysis for a sample of 7776 cases that belong to the real estate market of apartments in Santiago de Chile. A total of 9 input parameters constitute the basis for these analyses using the standard EN ISO 13790 as calculation algorithm for estimating the annual heating demand.
AB - It is clear that the thermophysical properties of materials, occupancy patterns and internal gains represent some of the most important sources of uncertainty in the field of building simulation. Uncertainty and sensibility analysis deals with this situation, since it can generate a great range of forecast values based on the distribution of the input variables. At the same time, these techniques allow to determine as each variable contribute to the total variance of output results. However, most of the building energy simulation programs are deterministic, rather than probabilistic and consequently their results frequently are not expressed in terms of probabilities. On the contrary, the probabilistic approach requires a more complex process, since parameters quantification requires not only an assessment of the point estimate, but also an assessment of the uncertainty. This research aims to define the uncertainty of the predicted energy performance by means of the comparison between factorial design and Monte Carlo Analysis for a sample of 7776 cases that belong to the real estate market of apartments in Santiago de Chile. A total of 9 input parameters constitute the basis for these analyses using the standard EN ISO 13790 as calculation algorithm for estimating the annual heating demand.
KW - Building performance simulation
KW - Uncertainty and sensibility analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84864131076&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84864131076
SN - 9782874632761
T3 - PLEA 2011 - Architecture and Sustainable Development, Conference Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture
SP - 23
EP - 28
BT - PLEA 2011 - Architecture and Sustainable Development, Conference Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture
Y2 - 13 July 2011 through 15 July 2011
ER -