COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model

Samuel Ropert; Tomas Perez-Acle; Alejandro Bernardin

doi:10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015499

COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model

Samuel Ropert, Tomas Perez-Acle, Alejandro Bernardin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022
Editors	B. Feng, G. Pedrielli, Y. Peng, S. Shashaani, E. Song, C.G. Corlu, L.H. Lee, E.P. Chew, T. Roeder, P. Lendermann
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages	2546-2557
Number of pages	12
ISBN (Electronic)	9798350309713
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015499
State	Published - 2022
Event	2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022 - Guilin, China Duration: 2022 → 2022

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
Volume	2022-December
ISSN (Print)	0891-7736

Conference

Conference	2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022
Country/Territory	China
City	Guilin
Period	11/12/22 → 14/12/22

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Dr. Alejandro Bernardin contributed equally to this paper. The authors are pleased to acknowledge financial support from Centro Ciencia & Vida, FB210008, Programa de Financiamiento Basal para Centros Científicos y Tecnológicos de Excelencia de ANID. The authors acknowledge the support from the National Laboratory for High Performance Computing (NLHPC), ECM02 (Powered@NLHPC). This work was partially supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) under award number FA9550-20-1-0196.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 IEEE.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Software
Modeling and Simulation
Computer Science Applications

Access to Document

10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015499

Cite this

Ropert, S., Perez-Acle, T., & Bernardin, A. (2022). COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model. In B. Feng, G. Pedrielli, Y. Peng, S. Shashaani, E. Song, C. G. Corlu, L. H. Lee, E. P. Chew, T. Roeder, & P. Lendermann (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022 (pp. 2546-2557). (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference; Vol. 2022-December). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015499

Ropert, Samuel ; Perez-Acle, Tomas ; Bernardin, Alejandro. / COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy : A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model. Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. editor / B. Feng ; G. Pedrielli ; Y. Peng ; S. Shashaani ; E. Song ; C.G. Corlu ; L.H. Lee ; E.P. Chew ; T. Roeder ; P. Lendermann. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2022. pp. 2546-2557 (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference).

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abstract = "During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.",

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Ropert, S, Perez-Acle, T & Bernardin, A 2022, COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model. in B Feng, G Pedrielli, Y Peng, S Shashaani, E Song, CG Corlu, LH Lee, EP Chew, T Roeder & P Lendermann (eds), Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference, vol. 2022-December, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 2546-2557, 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022, Guilin, China, 11/12/22. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015499

COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model. / Ropert, Samuel; Perez-Acle, Tomas; Bernardin, Alejandro.
Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. ed. / B. Feng; G. Pedrielli; Y. Peng; S. Shashaani; E. Song; C.G. Corlu; L.H. Lee; E.P. Chew; T. Roeder; P. Lendermann. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2022. p. 2546-2557 (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference; Vol. 2022-December).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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N1 - Funding Information: Dr. Alejandro Bernardin contributed equally to this paper. The authors are pleased to acknowledge financial support from Centro Ciencia & Vida, FB210008, Programa de Financiamiento Basal para Centros Científicos y Tecnológicos de Excelencia de ANID. The authors acknowledge the support from the National Laboratory for High Performance Computing (NLHPC), ECM02 (Powered@NLHPC). This work was partially supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) under award number FA9550-20-1-0196. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 IEEE.

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N2 - During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.

AB - During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.

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Ropert S, Perez-Acle T, Bernardin A. COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model. In Feng B, Pedrielli G, Peng Y, Shashaani S, Song E, Corlu CG, Lee LH, Chew EP, Roeder T, Lendermann P, editors, Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2022. p. 2546-2557. (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference). doi: 10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015499

COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model

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